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Financial and Capital Account Surplus Went up to USD 1.2 bln. in August

According to the preliminary data, the two-months record was showing a positive net liquidity balance totaling USD 214 mln. in August 2011 (in July it was USD 108 mln.). It resulted in the international reserve volume increase to USD 38.2 bn., thus ensuring import financing within 4.6 months of the future period.

In August, the current account deficit increased to USD 1.0 bln. (in July it was USD 557 mln.) mainly by the reason of further commodity import growth against the high investment demand. Within 8 months of the present year, the deficit reached USD 4.5 bn. (last January – August it totaled as low as USD 282 mln.).

The increase of export of key commodity groups has somewhat quickened. The annual rate of export growth reached 35.8% (compared to 26.6% in July). First of all, it’s explained by the increased ferrous metal export after low indices in July. In view of the low comparison base of the last year, the annual growth rates were among the highest ones this year – 46.7% (19.5% in July). Resumption of grain deliveries to foreign markets resulted in the agricultural products export growth by 17.7%, while in July the export index was 1.4% lower than the last year index. However, grain deliveries were rather low as a result of uncertain validity period of export duty on grain and competition with the Russian grain traders. Moreover, engineering product export growth has accelerated (up to 59.7% compared to 26.8% in July) due to supplies to Russia.

Commodity import was growing fast (33.5% compared to 28.2% in July) even upon significant reduction of the natural gas import. For example, in August the annual import growth rate increased for engineering products (to 64.0% compared to 51.2% in July), chemical industry (to 31.5% compared to 12.6%) and metals (to 46.7% compared to 43.4%). This year’s general trend of high import of non-energy products is mainly explained by the domestic demand revival, first of all, the investment one, in particular, due to significant budgetary capital outlays.

Financial and capital account surplus increased to USD 1.2 bln. in August (compared to USD 665 mln. in July) and completely covered the current account deficit. Surplus growth was caused by high direct investments – USD 939 mln. (compared to USD 415 mln. in July), including in the banking sector – USD 427 mln. Moreover, payments for commodity and service import were USD 1.8 bn. lower than the actual import which possibly means an increased indebtedness under trade credits (this data arrives with a significant time delay). As a result, the surplus for “Other capital” reached USD 0.9 bln. even under conditions of retaining high growth of currency outside banks (USD 0.7 bln.).

Similar to previous months, in August banks were intensively decreasing their overseas debts (credit and bond debts were decreased by USD 457 mln.). Also, the number of government domestic loan bonds owned by non-residents has decreased (by USD 254 mln.).

Source: National Bank of Ukraine