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Express-evaluation of Inflation (July 2011)

The largest decrease of Consumer Price Index (CPI) since 2003 was observed in July (1.3%). CPI decreased by 0.2% excluding seasonal factor.

Significant and non-typical raw foods price reduction (down 5.8% per month, down 3.3% seasonal factors excluded) was the major factor causing the CPI decrease (1.6 pct).

The consumer inflation slowed down to 10.6% pct (4.6% YTD).

Core CPI growth slightly slowed down in July and amounted to 0.5% (contribution to CPI – 0.2 pct). In annual terms, core inflation increased up to 8.6% (8.3% in June), mainly due to the statistical base comparison effect.

Prices for industrial goods, except for fuel (narrow core inflation) fell by 0.1% (increased by 2.9% in annual terms) on the back of a weak demand (GDP gap in 2Q was down 0.9%) and strengthening of the nominal effective exchange rate of UAH in May and June.

Reduction of a non-basic CPI by 3.4% (a -1.5% contribution to the CPI) is almost entirely due to lowering prices for raw foods. In annual terms non-basic inflation slowed to 13.7% compared to 17.1% in June.
Prices for goods and services regulated by government increased in July by 0.5% (a 0.1% contribution to the CPI, or 21.4% p.a.).

The decline of oil prices on world commodity markets last months led to fuel cheapening by 0.2% per month. However, the growth in fuel prices remains high in annual terms (35.1%).

The slowdown in external demand caused a decrease in monthly CPI growth rate (0.1% in July from 0.5% in June).

However, the annual growth rate of the CPI remained high (20.3%), which is a factor of pressure on consumer prices.

Source: National Bank of Ukraine